Saturday, August 14, 2010

STI

Trend:  Potential sideways - downtrend
 ? Uptrend polarity has changed since STI broke the 2958-2950 support.
 + MacD signal still above 0 meant uptrend is still intact
 - 20d/ 50d MA moving sideways seems loosing momentum
 - Price action is trapped between 20d and 50d

Support and Resistance: Price near 2950 resistance
 - Price action is near support turn resistance around 2950, confluence with 23.6%
 - Price is below 20d MA
 + 2892 nearest support at 50d MA also confluence with 38.2% Fibo is strong
 + Cyclicity is good. Price retrace below 20d started to rebound. If continue upward, will resume uptrend. Good entry for long.

Candlestick Analysis : White engulfing with upper shadow resisted at 2950

Indicators:
+ RSI, Stochastic at oversold position
- RSI sideways is trendless
- Stochastic moving down has yet to crossover. More download pressure...

Strength/ Weakness:

 -Direction of MA and RSI seems to favour sideways movement...
 + Polarity change from downtrending momentum

Key Levels:
 - If price action failed to break 2950, it is forming lower high and expect the down trend may continue or trading sideways for near term
+ If price breaks 2950, if probably made another attemp to clear 3030 resistance.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

C

Trend: Up trend
Observations: 20d, 50 pointing up. 50d, 100d bullish crossover. MacD signal above 0.
Recent retracement is still supported by 20d and channel. As long as the trendline not broken, any pull back next trading day will continue the upward momentum. A good entry opportunity !

Friday, April 2, 2010

GreatEast

Trend:
Strong uptrending, recently breakout from typical flag formation with high volume is a continuation pattern. If continue to break resistance, the anticipated price target at 17.13.
Risk - 0.49
Rewards - 1.16
Rewards/Risk= 2.3
Indicators :
No bearish divergence.

AMD


Trend :
Uptrend, reversal during recent retracement has been confiirmed 2 days ago!
Candles:
Bullish harami confirmed next day with white candles. Candles are tracing along 20d MA moving up! Last candle did not manage to close above previous day and long shadow is doubtfull ?
MA:
20d point up with bullsih crosover. 50d flat...could signal not ready to breakout the consolidaton yet?
Indicators:
RSI is on it way down and seems moving sideway..any signal of consolidation ?
Stochastic bullish cross below 50%.
MacD histogram dispalyed 4R1G bull signal 2 days ago.
Conclusion:
Immediate turn expect stock price to continue upward move and suspect it may need time to breakout as indicators still not confirm.





Alcoa (AA)

Trend :
Uptrend. After period of correction in Jan and followed by consolidation, the trend seems to be maturing with 20d crossover 50d and presently touching 100d.
Candles:
Doiji engulfing is confirmed with last black candle is retracing towards 14.00 support.. 14.00 support is major.
MA:
20d MA is strengthening and pending crossover the 100d. But 50d MA is still pointing down. Hence suspect breakout from consoldiation may have to wait for a while.
Indicators:
RSI trending upwards w/o compromise. Likewise the stochastic are bullish.
MacD distogram 6R, will display but sign if any rebound appeared.

Conclusion:
Watch out for retracement near 14.00 reversal signal to long !14.00 support is strong.

C

Trend     : Uptrend but recent retracement also displayed obvious bearish divergence.
Candles  : Black candle rested on 20d MA as support. Weekly candle close with dark cloud is bearish.
MA        : 20d MA bullish crossover 50d, and 100d. 50d and 100d  appeared flat.
Indicators:
                Weekly Macd historogram 10G, potentally face retracement pressure.
                 RSI and Stochastic are pointing down. Further downward movement expected.
                 Bollinger - break below 20d would see the price sliding down toward lower band ~ 3.7 at 100d Ma support and 3.5 at 50d MA support.

Conclusion :
   Sell !

Friday, March 26, 2010

NOL


Trend : Uptrend, price rested on 20d MA
Last candle : Doiji display indecisive, pending confirmation on direction.
MA: 20d MA pointing up but 50d and 100d are flat. suspected limited upside movement in near term.
Indicators:  Caution - bearish divergence!
MacD histogram below ctr. is red while signal line bearish crossover are bearish.
RSI pointing down towards 50% pending rebound
Stochastic at oversold has bullish crossover.
Conclusion:

Potential rebounds at current support 1.93. Wait for confirmation candle!
Immediate resistance at 2.03 has limited upside. If rebound at 1.93, it is higher low, hence showing strong uptrending...
If breaks support, be aware of price gap at 1.89. Further support at 1.81 is confluence with 50d MA

Kepcorp


Trend: Uptrend, broke psychological 9.00 with high volume.
Classical analysis:
Price retracing toward support level. 20d MA is bullish.
Indicators: No bearish divergence.
MacD histogram 5R, pending one G to confirm entry signal.
Stochastic rebound at 50% is bullish
RSI uptrend t 70% is overbought
Observations:
Flag formation with price target 10.00 if breakout. Nearest resistance at 9.31. Support level - 9.00, 8.74
Good risk rewards ratio.
Recommend to long when breakout formation with volume.

Sembcorp


Overall sentiment:

  • Uptrend.

  • Stock rebound from bottom to 50% is currently retrace to 3.90 resistance turn support.

  • 3.90 support is strong because the mar 11 breakout with significant volume.

  • Weekly chart shown stock trading in uptrending channel is currently retrace to lower channel. Hence watch out if stock break below 3.90.

  • Also noted bearish divergence on RSI and stochastic indicators.

  • 20d vertical up is bullish, 50d and 100d are pointing up.
Conclusion:

Watchout for immediate support at 3.90. If breakout below, wait for retracement to lower channel as shown in weekly chart above for rebound since indicators shown bearish divergence and RSI, stochastic trend are compromised.

STI

Trend :
 Uptrend, Higher high, higher low, MacD signal above ctr.
Support :
 2884 minor support/ 2840 (strong - rising window confluence with 20d MA) / 2800 20w MA support
Resistance:
 2930 - 3000
Candles/ Moving Average :
 Weekly and daily show retracing. 20d MA bullish crossover 50d and 100d MA is bullish.

Indicators : No bearish divergence
Bollinger band - stock is retracing towards ctr. of bollinger at 2840 also confluence with a rising window.
MacD - daily  histogram 4R is pending 1R for entry sign, weekly MacD moving towards ctr. line.
RSI - daily overbought, moving sideway, weekly RSI is 53% hence, suspect this retracement is temporary.
Stochastic - moving down near 20% over sold expect limited down side.

Observations:
Strong support at 2840. If rebound around this level, also supported by 20w MA, stock could be continue the upward channel as shown in daily chart.  Rebound around this level will reconfirm uptrend, higher low.
Any breakout below 2840 could potentially attemp to cover the rising window at 2800.
Weekly trend suggest between 2930 - 2686. Hence 2840 is critical level to watchout!

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Citi

Trend
  • Uptrend, Higher high and Higher low
  • MacD signal above Ctr. is displaying uptrend
  • 20d MA is pointing up and recently completed 50d bullish crossover.
  • Price brokout from long standing  resistance @ 3.47 with high volume is significant would be strong resistance turn support.
Candlesticks
  •  Last trading display bearish engulfing, indicating short term retracement expecting, need one more bearish candle to confirm
  •  Price supported by rising window ( 3.92 - 3.86) and appeared to be on top of a channel.
Indicators
  •  RSI overbough 70% pointing down is expecting to retrace towards 61% level in channel.
  •  MacD histogram 4G1R is bearish, expect short term retracement.
  •  Bollinger band - Price outside the band is expecting to retrace back to 20d near term
  • GMMA chart shows short term and Mid term MA are crossing above long term. The long term MA consoldiation suggest investors approaching Price/value agreement and down trend is ending soon if the long term MA begin to expand. i.e. good to enter when short term MA rebound near the long term MA.
Conclusion
  • Short term is expecting price to retrace.
  • Long term indicating confident is building up and good to consider 'long' when price rebound to support (3.857  rising window support, 3.5 )
  • Wait for MacD 4R1G to enter
  • Target resistance @ 4.3, 4.87

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Elliott Wave


Except Kepcorp and SembMar, most of these counters are on Wave (B)!
Watchout for the Corrective wave patterns..Could it be Zigzag, Flat or Triangle..?

Sunday, February 21, 2010

STI forming new trading channel ?

Monthly chart:
I used monthly chart to filter out noices and hoping to detect any new trend.
  • MacD histogram indicating that STI is begining a new phase.
  • Comparing Jan 10 candle with Dec 09, it is showing bull and bear are in equal confrontation ! Similar to Mar 09 with piercing white candle before bull confirmation in Apr 09
  • While Feb 10 candle is still forming, market sentiment is more downward pressure,if close below the 2700, bear win. However, the verdic is still depeding whether the 50m MA is strong enough to hold the pressure within next week.
  • If Feb 10 is holding above 50m MA, strongly suspect sideway market to be followed.
  • From past trend, STI has been trading within channel, it will be good to detect the new channel as soon as it formed.
Daily chart
  • Candle analysis - Hammer, potential rebound.
  • Indicators - MacD 4G1R, stochastic and RSI are bearish
  • Resistance at raising window and 50d MA could restrict the upward move.
  • No bullish divergence

Yanlord



Daiily chart:
  • Downtrend
  • Candles shown evening star and close below 20d is bearish
  • Indicators - Stochastic, 4G1R MacD and RSI are bearish
Short. Tareget support 1.56




Weekly Chart :
  • Candle failed to break 200d MA
  • MacD signal line cross below ctr. simlar to 15-2-08 suspect further downward trend.
  • Same with RSI below 40% on both dates
  • Caution - 1.62 is also 20m MA support

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

China Solar Energy

  • 20d MA bullish crossover
  • GMMA long term MA expanding, signifying investors buying confident is growth.
  • Positive upward expected with gaps bet'n short term and long term MA increasing.
  • Good counter to consider for long term growth. Target to buy again when price deep.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Shenzhen Int'l Holdings

Trend : Up
Formaton : Looks like a symatical triangle
Indicators :
MACD Singall above zero is bullish, Histogram  6 red  potentially turn green -entry signal
Stochastic and  RSI at over sold, potentially rebounds
Wait for confirmation to enter.

If breakout above formation, good profit target at 0.80!!!
If below below 0.56 and 200d MA, exit !!!



Monday, January 4, 2010


USD
End Nov 09 bottom has been confirmed by higher high and higher low.
GMMA shown that the short term MA representing traders sentiment is bullish with crossover the long term MA, representing the investors' sentiment. The long term MA downtrend  collapse meaning the investors have comes to ageement on Price and Value and trend is reversing. It is expecting the trending will favour uptrend going forward and supported by investors' fundamental buying.Any compression/expansion of the short term MA signal a good opportunity to BUY!!!

GOLD
Those who missed the gold rally hopping to catch when the price retace. Is it good time to enter ?
NOT YET!
The GMMA indicator shown that the collapse of the long term MA after the uptrend is indicating the investors apart from the Trader are selling and backing out. Any further downturn and expansion of th long term MA will signal very bearish sentiment.
Meantime 20d MA point down and about to cross 50d is the sell signal !
Those who plan to take opportunity should wait for GMA short term MA to crossover the long term and at lease sould the expansion of the short term MA. Buying now is at highest risk!

STI vs Hang Seng


STI
Since breakout from 2800, STI continue smooth sail upwards. GMMA shows that the trend has been firmed since Nov 09. Short term MA representing the trader sentiment retracement hardly touch the long term MA (representing the investors' sentiment). The recent short term expansion explain the rally and hence many happy traders! Also noted that the long ter M, the collapsed since Nov 1st week ahd been steadily widen, indicating fundamental support to the uptrend. This is an excellent opportunity to trade either breakout or when price deep and rebound...

Hang Seng
Surprisingly STI and Hang Seng has been decoupled for many months! The GMMA shows that the short term MA regularly harrasing the long term MA is a nervsely up. End Nov getting worst when the short term MA penetrated the long term and now the bearish crossover! Meantime, Head and Shoulder formation appeared in Dec.
Consolation is the short term MA has started to collapse and rebound. The next few days will be critical to show if the trend is reversing or rebound! Trade cautiously...

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Market Oulook

STI

Trend : Up
S&R : 3000, 2812 / 2724
Observations:  Supported by 150w MA.Short term and long term MA started to expand, with gaps increasing, showing sign of strengthening !
Good to long when price deep.