USDSDG

USD has rebound from 9 months low.
Recent price has formed higher high and started to retrace down. This is perfect opportunity to long when the price of this correction form higher low.

Chaoda Modern Agri Holdings 0682

Trend: Uptrend. Higher high and higher low.
Observations:

• More black candles than white over the past 1 week. Should the week ending with another doiji would be concerned or short term correction.
• The MACD bearish crossover just started.
• Caution - MACD signal and stochastic showing bearish divergence. Therefore need to tighten cut loss should the correction happen!

China Agri-Industries Holdings 0606

Rebound from recent retracement presented Higher High and High Low uptrend. Doiji followed by two white candles confirmed the rebound.
MACD 4R1G, RSI heading north to break 50%, Stochastic bullish crossover..all these confirm uptrend momentum is strong!
Bollinger Squeeze just about to start..if that happen, pay attend to the direction of the squeeze.

Bullish/ Bearish Divergence

Exceprt from Chartnexus forum --
------
Jaychia (Trainer) responded
Glad you ask this question!
I think this issue arises due to the fact that recently, a lot of bearish divergence failed.
So I guess there will be 2 sets of question will ask for divergence signal.

1) If the trend is uptrend and I see bearish divergence signal. I should not go long
Ans: You still can go long. Bearish divergence signal is just a warning sign and it could fail. Hencefore, this warning sign tells you to be cautious with this counter. Cautious does not mean do not enter, it means be careful and if there is a need to stop out the position, please do so. In this kind of situation, my action plan normally will be reduce my position when i enter this position.
Note: Vice versa for Bullish divergence.

2) How will we know divergence signal fails?
Ans: The theory is that if the trend does not reverse, the divergence signal fails. So what does it means in layman term? Base on our current example on bearish divergence, to confirm bearish divergence signal that has failed, these are the requirements:
- Higher high is formed (Price breaks recent high)
- After the new higher high is formed, the indicator must also shows a higher high. If lower high in the indicator, while price movement is higher high, it means bearish divergence still in play.
* Note vice versa for bullish divergence.

rich00166 wrote:

Bearish Divergence



Trainer,

I find it hard to convince on bearish/bullish divergence signal. Whilst I know it only serve as a warming, more often it doesn’t help or rather causing me to miss the opportunity to enter or exit too early.

Look at Hkland for example:
1) Excellent bull trend since mar and still moving up. The MACD histogram and also the signal has been flagging lower high since May!
2) Likewise if I look at weekly chart, divergence displayed since May and the MACD bearish crossover just about to start. Today the counter continue to bull !!!



Appreciate any feedback.

USD

USD reach bottom ?
Recent reboundhas yet to break trendline. The recent downtrend is confluence with previous.
Strategy -
1) Long when price break trendline
2) Long when price retrace to support and rebounds.
If price contine to break support, continue to wait.
Expect price to rebound to 50% when rebound from historical low!

China Power New Energy

TREND : Sideways
Weekly : Right chart shows reversal.Expect this week to retrace.
Daily :
0.695 strong resistance, confluence with 78.6% Fibo.
Support at 0.57 also confluence with 50% Fibo.
Candle today suggest to retrace shortly towards support or 20d MA (Red)

ICBC

Plan for long term investment. Lookout for entry near 20d MA, 4R1G.

Has USD reach the bottom ?

• Daily chart shows the recent lower low was not significant.Bullish divergence signal on RSI and MACD appeared and these suggested in near term could be heading sideways. RSI and stochastic suggested to be at reasonable entry.     
• Weekly charts MACD signal approaching bullish crossover soon.   
• Strategy for long term : Start accumulation, the downside risk is limited although may have to wait or signal to see the triger for next bull. 

Dow, S&P, STI and Hang Seng

Last few days, when Dow is up, STI is down, when I expected the Dow to retreat, last friday ended very bullish.
Signals are confusing ...? No more until this morning when I compare the indexes using line charts as shown below.

Time to starting preparing for the next fishing !

Tianjin

Weekly Trend : Consolidating
Indicators are bearishing, the pressure of breaking 0.91 is high!
Daily Trend : Consolidating
RSI and stochastics near over-sold, should watchout for rebound level shortly.
Double top formation suggest to be more caucious and wait for confirmation if  long.

Alibaba

Nov 17 -
Weekly trend : up
Trend is higher high and higher low.
Just broke resistance, supported by 20w MA.
Daily trend : up
Expect short term correction. RSI, stochastic pointing down.
Lookout for MA support to rebound.
Trading strategy : 4R1G, RSI rebound aroud 50% near MA.

Nov 20 -

• Higher low indicated that uptrend is intact. Possible support are 50d, 20d, 100d MA and trendline.
• 20d MA crossover 50d MA will signal the begining of next up trend!

Weekly : Engulfing expect retacement start next week!















Nov 24-

Perfect trendline, expect to rebound around 1900 !

Global Indexes - Direction for this week

This week started with bullish day. STI broke 2740 resistance ended at 2783 !
The key question is what will be the outlook for this week?
If we based on the past weekly records, every week when Dow ended with a black candle, Hang Seng and STI followed without fail.
If we look at the pattern of white and black candle formation, very likely the Dow will be a black this week. Hang Seng could be a white candle because the pattern seems to be 3 weeks white follow by black.
STI is 50-50 as usual without definate bearing.

Point to note : Dow last week broke resistance has shown the strength, this could be the cause for strong rally today.
My trading trading strategy  : Counters that I hold will be on hold. Refrain from new entry...bec. this week or next latest could be a pull back.

Global Indexes

Trend is up. Market just started correction.


All indexes, Dow, S&P and STI are beginning to enter the correction phase.










An only difference is S&P seems to be weaker among the three. Last cycle seems to be lower low and the high was almost similar to previous cycle at 1104. If the corrected fall below the previous low at 1032, watch-out for double top formation which could be the signal for reversal.

STI although showing higher high and higher low, there are bearish divergence to be caution in case the correction breaks 50d and 80d MA.

Bull is sleeping

Dow, S&P 500 were up marginally last night but Hang Seng and STI and reacted negatively today!

This reaction simply indicated that the Bull is still sleeping! We shall see tomorrow to confirm the correction.

Sentiment in this uncertain market movement, I am expecting friday to be another day for profit taking and clear stocks by fund manager before the weekend.

If this cycle is similar to previous, the correction could end around Nov 27 or Dec 4 latest. Shall wait for next opportunity start shopping. Meanwhile, taking a break !

Funny Animations

Market Sentiment Not firm ? Play Safe - STI

Intraday sentiment is uncertain. STI continue to rally in the morning following US but strong pullback in the later afternoon. Trading volume are still low, any slightest wind will cause the price to retrace back. Hence to test the market, I rather to select counters with strong uptrend. At least if the weather is changing, I can still stay loating without hefty cut!

Super catch : Dark horse !

Weekly and daily trends are bullish. 1st MA crossover 20w-50w on May 6 week. Pending 50w- 100w MA crossover to confirm! Waiting for History to repeat !!! Do take note of accumulation volume!

Tianjin

Strong bull and started to go sideways. Good to monitor at support 0.94 for next action.

SMRT, ZTE

SMRT

Defensive counter, trading on narrow band, sideways between 1.74 - 1.66. Support at 1.66 is strong and confluence with 50% Fibonachi.   Short term - expect to retrace down.

Weekly trend is bullish !If break resistance @ 46.36 would continue to charge upward.
Daily chart, broke 20d MA is retesting the 20d MA resistance. Doiji appeared last friday suspect to face some resistance at this level.(20d MA). 42.33 would be the target to observe before making the entry.

Dow gain 200 pts. last night!

Singapore market is going sideways for long while and Hang Seng weekly trend loosing strength with bearish MACD crossover recently. Dow mid-term momentum remains steady.
It is frustrating to see sudden search while waiting for entry. I am hesitant to enter specially on Friday morning when market open with gap-up, suspecting that profit taking could happen before end of the day! I hope I am right this time.
Emotion control is harder part to manage our trading strategy.

DOW - STI (Bottom fishing ?)

MACD Signal line above ctr. meaning the uptrend is intact.

Should 50 MA start to crossover 100w MA, the bull trend is confirmed. By then, weekly 4R1G will appear.

Comparing both chart seems to show that long term trend is up while short term retrace is happening. This  would be good opportunity to invest when it starts to rebound below 30% RSI.

C

• MACD below ctr. is bearish. Price broke 4.11 support and testing 3.8 support.  The long legged black candle suggested the price could contine to test the next support next few days.                                             PLAN: If break 3.8, incidentally also break the trendlin could meant heading for bigger down turn. Otherwise, 3.8 support confluence with the trendline and 100d MA is strong. Long when 4R1G and RSI shows rebound from 30%.

C Buy or Sell ?

Friend from C asking if I would buy C now. I said not yet. He asked if I would consider selling at $5/- I said No way. He laugh! Answer is I am trapped?

Short term:
Broke 20d and 50d MA, Lower high and sideways, base on recent price movement. Trendline broken, MACD just has bearish crossover and RSI pointing down. Support at $ 4.00.
Volume declining and potentially a doule top formation!

Mid term:
Left chart- Confirming C reach bottom.
volume signifcantly increase. RSI attemp to break 70% 3rd time upward and try to cross ctr. line.
Zoom in closer to chart on the right, Price is supported by 20w, 50w MA. 20W MA waiting to crossover 50W MA and if that happen, bullish divergence!RSI, MACD are showing bullish strength.

Longer term : Significant volume accumulation. Since Feb, price is upward and trend is still intact. Bullish MACD crossover just happen in Aug and MACD histogram above zero. Downtrend line has broken since May 09. Now on sideways. Once the price movement breaks the 20m MA, it would become bullish.

Conclusion:

Near term bearish and hope correction near support at $4 to enter. Do watchout for market sentiment in case double top turn to major correction. Hence wait for rebound at $4 to confirm the entry.

For long term view, stock has touched bottom and volume has increased signifiacnt showing buyer interest. Downside risk is limited and upside gain for longer term cannot be ignore! Therefore selling now near resistance at $5.00 does not make sense.

-/-/-/-/-

o  o

 <>

Biosensor

Plan:
Short term continuation pattern formation. Diminshing Volume.
Wait for high volume breakout to enter.
Huat ah !

CapitaMal

Stock approaching rising window...support at 1.71.

Plan to add position when signals are correct.

Asendas Reit

Plan:
Wait for 4R1G
Stochastic bullish crossover

Alcoa

Stock retrace and approaching fallig window at 13.45.
MACD and stochastic bearish crossover. Historgram below ctr appeared to be bearish.
Momentum and RSI pointing down.

PLAN:
Wait for 4R1G,
Watchout for bullish reversal candle

C

Stock retrace approaching 4.1 support. Secondary support at 3.08.

Lookout for the following entry signal:

• MACD Histogram 4R1G
• Rebound candle near support
• RSI rebound near 30%

STI showing some strength

STI manage to stay above 2700 for past 4 days. Daily chart, MACD stay above signal line, stochastics showing sign of bullish crossover approaching soon. Weekly stochastics showing some strength with bullish crossover. These suggested more upward push.  Bollinger  band is showing sign of expanding, DOW is trading near resistance, expect to have near term correction but overall uptrend still strong.

STI Fighting to stay abov 2700

• Dow drop last friday. As expected, today open with bearish sentiment.
• 2700 level strong resistance become key support with secondary support at 20d MA (2656)
• Weekly MACD still very much sideways and daily indicator seems to be more bullish.
• Plan : Watchout for stock with bullish crossover and near support. : ) Huat Ah!

Capitamall and Ying Li

STI continue to trade above 2700 resistance.
Decided to ente Capiitamall at 3.74 and Ying Li at 0.83. Both at near support with significant volume.
MACD 4R1G.

Huat ah!

STO Broke 2700 resistance Oct 14

STI broke 2700 resistance (long outstanding) and DOW broke 10,000 !
Most stocks are near/ break resistance at the moment.
Options are :
1. Wait for resistance turn support
2. Lookout for good counters trading at support
3. Trade breakout from resistance with high volume

USD toasted - email from Robert Kiyosaki

Received this email recently found to be interesting...


"The dollar has long been the reserve currency of the world, giving the US tremendous power. But that power was built on the world's fragile faith in our currency. Stress cracks are beginning to show in the world's willingness to accept the dollar.

"I know Iran's President is not the most popular man in the world, or in his country. I know he is scrambling to retain power in Iran. And I know he is switching from the dollar to the euro in order to throw mud in our face. Nonetheless, this change is right in line with what is predicted in Conspiracy of the Rich. The dollar is losing its power as the reserve currency of the world. In other words, the American empire of debt is coming to an end. "

-----
Don't know what will be the impact if USD continue to slide downwards...


In short term US stocks appear to be cheaper! Singapore probably will not let the SGD continue to strengthen which could offset trade balance.

If the confident on the world dominant currency is shaken, investors are pulling out..hopefully to Asia and EM.. may be we should be focusing on where the $$$ flows.

STI/Hang Seng sideways

STI and Hang Seng both going sideways!

STI - Shooting star appeared Oct 14. Weekly chart, MACD and others indicators showing bearish crossover.

Hang Seng -  Bearish harami candle appeared. If combine the last 4 days, it looks like Doiji. Potentially bearish reversal to follow.

Attended the Chartnexus traders' club meeting Oct 12. Half the class expect the STI to breaks 2700 shortly and half like me feeling bearish..News reported in papers expecting 3Q to be better, GDP is up...etc.

In this confusing state, decided to keep away...take the profit, close the position and enter when the situation become clearer... don't know when..!

STI/Hang Seng

Resistance / Support : 2700 - 2600
Trend : Sideways and bearish
Weekly MACD bearish crossover approaching. Short term rally could be testing 2700 again.  Volume declining suspect the recent rally may not be subtainable.

Resistance/ Support : 21960 - 19940
Trend : Uptrend but beaish
Weeky MACD bearish crossover Less than STI. MACD Bearis divergence and momenum dropping.

Commodity Study

Noble ( 2.60– 2.30) BUY AT DEEP (TOP PRIORITY)
Weekly – Strong uptrend still intact.
Daily – Recently form higher low, rebound at 20d MA. Bollinger Squeeze seems approaching. Stochastic bullish crossover. 4R1G appeared.

Plan: Wait for next retrace ! This stock tendency to retrace when break peak!!!

 
 
 
 

 
 
 

 
Wilmar (7.00 – 6.00 / 5.78)
Weekly - Uptrend, bearish. MACD crossover.
Daily – Broke 20d, 50d MA. If lower high appears, indicating downtrend. MACD signal is bearish. . MACD 4R1G rebounds from support ( Technical rebound ?) Momentum moving down to 0. Strong support at 6.00 and if breaks, secondary support at 5.78 confluence with 23.6% Fibo .

Plan: Wait for 6.00 level to enter 1st batch and if breaks, wait for 5.78 to re-enter.

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Golden Agri ( 0.45/ 0.50 – 0.385 / 0.285)
Weekly - Uptrend but bearish. If breaks 20w MA, potentially sideways. Double formation can be threatening if happen! MACD sideways showing bearish divergence.
Daily - Rebounds at 0.385. 20d MA is heading south! If forming lower high will be confirming down trending.

Plan - HOLD unless breaks 0.38


 
 

 
 
 

 

StraitsAsia ( 2.34 – 2.00 / 1.91)
Weekly - Uptrend, bearish. Attempted to break support once. (1.91) MACD bearish crossover! Supported by 20w MA. Momentum crossed 0.
Daily – Bearish. Broke 20d/50d MA, supported by 100d MA. 2.00 support confluence with 38.2% Fibo is strong. H&S supported at this level is formed!

Plan – Short if breaks 1.91 with volume!